Gloom and despair join to create overcast for Democrats these days. As my recent blogs indicate, this one included. Driven by a sense that the moneyed interests are successfully using one of their properties, the Republican Party, we fear loosing the reform of health care in America. Perhaps worse is the sensed growing possibility that calculated, exploited ignorance would again defeat reason. M. Scott Peck has defined evil as “militant ignorance.” Evil stalks our land.
One result is falling approval numbers and growing disappointment with President Barack Obama. Despite a seething anger I can’t sign up for this view. My every instinct fights against it. Joining instinct is a belief that hidden by today’s chaos the forces for good are working an effective strategy. It includes dividing the enemy, using the Legislative process, and a long-term belief in the judgment of the American people.
One cause for the failure of the Clinton health reform of the early 90s was unified opposition from the health care industry. The Obama Administration has divided this powerful enemy. It negotiated a private agreement with the pharmaceutical industry. Pharma contributes $80 billion to reduce the cost of its products for seniors over the next ten years. In exchange it avoids having to negotiate drug prices in a reformed health care system. Standing alone, the deal stinks and progressives are wildly derisive. But big pharma has joined a coalition funding ads supporting health care reform. The American Medical Association is another member of the coalition. The juggernaut faced by the Clintons is broken.
President Obama has been widely criticized for not taking control of the process to write reform legislation. In the Senate, he has worked beyond all ordinary reason and hope for a bipartisan reform bill. The Republican leading work on bipartisan legislation, Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, has even endorsed the “death panel” ignorance of anti-reform groups. Any bill that Grassley supports will be awful. Legislative process, however, favors the pro-reform forces. Consider how this story could unfold.
As the Senate continues its work, the House has produced a bill through its committee process that includes a public option. This bill is likely to be approved by the full House in September. Once the awful counterpart emerges from the Senate, the two bills go to a House/Senate conference committee to sort through the differences. The product is a bill that will come before each chamber. I believe it will include a public option. There are enough votes in the House to pass it.
The filibuster is a major stumbling block to Senate approval of anything. Unless 60 Senators join to stop debate, Republicans can use the filibuster-as they often do-to kill reform. Even with 60 Democratic Senators it’s unlikely they would join to stop debate. President Obama and his allies then have a trump card to play. The health care reform bill can be considered a budget reconciliation procedure. “Reconciliation” does not permit the filibuster. The bill would pass with a majority of 51 votes. Critical heat will be aimed at any effort to bypass “normal” Senate procedure. But this is the road we travel to health care reform with a public option.
The thugs working town halls across the country have intensified the storm clouds over reform. Calculated exploitation of lies whip reform opponents into a frenzy. The resulting mob then drowns any perspective but its own with screams and physical intimidation. The news media revels in the chaos creating a sense that this strategy works.
Despite cries for outrage, President Obama counters with far less dramatic reason and truth. He is making a huge, calculated political bet. Two results are possible: militant ignorance wins and we loose America, or we get a true reform bill. If the latter, watch when the dust settles. Republicans may have put the final nail in their political coffin they have constructed with such intent. The President will stand at the winner’s window to collect on his bet on the American people.
It is a fearful, tense and troubling time. There is little comfort from the media that watches. Let’s not blink. As we did in the 2008 election we have cause to stand with President Obama. We had hope then. We have hope now.